An Inconvenient Truth
I’ve just finished reading Al Gore’s book on climate change, and I have to say that I was not particularly impressed. I hadn’t expected a great piece of literature, and I wasn’t wrong. But I’m not going to pick holes Gore’s turgid prose style (though I do wonder if the text was even looked at by an editor). My problem is with Gore’s representation of the scientific data on global warming.
It’s clear that the temperature of the earth has been increasing in recent decades. And it’s also clear that human activities, in particular the production of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, have contributed to this increase in temperature. It is not entirely how much of this change in temperature can be attributed to human activity. Gore however, never mentions that natural, non-anthropogenic factors may contributing to climate change. He leaves the reader with the impression that the increase in global temperature is entirely anthropogenic (see pages 66 and 67, for example).
This is not the scientific consensus. The scientific consensus, as cited in Naomi Oreskes survey study (mentioned approvingly by Gore), is:
“Human activities … are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents … that absorb or scatter radiant energy. … [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”
So, not “all” but “most” climate change is attributable to human causes. A substantial portion may well be due to natural causes. That’s not entirely surprising given that there were substantial shifts in global climate well before the appearance of mammals, let alone Homo sapiens. I think this is an important distinction, and one that Gore should not have omitted.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m generally in agreement with taking steps to ameliorate climate change. People who buy Porsche SUVs are not especially bright (tasteless idiots — who drives off the lot with a Cayenne rather than a Boxster?). Counter-climatic air-conditioning (the thermostat set to “Fires of Hell” in winter and “Everest Base Camp” in summer) is a massive waste of energy. Quite apart from their effects on climate change these types of wasteful energy use offend my sense of frugality, and also result in old-fashioned environmental pollution.
But I do think that if we are ever to take significant steps toward ending or slowing climate change an honest accounting of the scientific evidence is necessary. And I don’t think An Inconvenient Truth provides that.
Finally, a quick note to Al: New Zealand isn’t part of Australia — can you fix up page 251 in the second edition? Thanks.